CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Talk about clueless ... not only does that apply to the Cleveland Indians, but to me as I look back and weep about some of the things I wrote this spring:
1. Start with the starters. Start with me knowing the Indians would not have a good starting rotation. Start with me simply ignoring that, and writing that they'd win 91 games and the Central Division, anyway. And start with writing that Carl Pavano could be another Jason Johnson, a real bust in the rotation -- and he has been the team's second-best starter behind Cliff Lee and leads the team with eight victories.
2. Not only did I insist the Indians would contend for a title, I wrote Detroit "had no chance" to win the Central Division. Well, at the All-Star break, the Tigers are in first place, the Indians in last. And I picked Arizona to win the NL West. The Diamondbacks stink, too. I also may have told someone that John McCain would win at least 40 states.
3. MVP for this season? Grady Sizemore, no doubt. Only Sizemore is batting .235 with 13 HR and 47 RBI and needs elbow surgery. And I predicted Brandon Webb would win the NL Cy Young Award. He got hurt, too.
4. I wrote the bullpen could be one of the strongest parts of the team, and not just because they signed closer Kerry Wood for $10 million annually. I was sure Jensen Lewis and Raffy Perez would be strong as set-up men. Well, maybe they are ... at Class AAA Columbus. They allowed 12 homers in 65 combined innings with the Tribe, their combined ERA a shocking 8.04.
5. That strong Tribe bullpen? Its 5.13 ERA is the worst in AL. But it's better than the starters, whose 5.56 ERA is also the pits of the league. And I sort of hinted the pitching would at least be OK. With a track record like that, anybody want some of my stock tips? I was real high on Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac about a year ago!
6. I was sure Ben Francisco would be an upgrade over Dave Dellucci and Jason Michaels in left field, that Francisco would hit around .280 with 20 HR. Well, he's at .242 with 6 HR, 25 RBI. Francisco batted only .236 after the 2008 All-Star break, so there were reasons for concern that I ignored.
7. I wrote something about Anthony Reyes giving the starting rotation the same grit as Kevin Millwood did back in 2005 when he had the best ERA in the American League. Well, Reyes had a bad elbow before he joined the Tribe, and it just got worse as he had major surgery -- after racking up a 6.57 ERA.
8. Twice in spring training, I wrote about how Fausto Carmona was looking good and throwing strikes -- He was, really! -- then came the regular season. I don't even want to talk about this stuff any more.
9. I really liked John Meloan, a pitcher the Indians acquired in the Casey Blake deal from the Dodgers last summer. I thought he could help in the bullpen. I mentioned this in print more than few times. Probably about the same time I could have told you that you really want to buy stock in AIG. Anyway, Meloan had a 5.69 ERA at Class AAA Columbus, and the Indians have traded him to Tampa Bay.
10. I'm going to stop here. I'm not going to mention how I pushed for Trevor Crowe (he batted .165) to be the fourth outfielder, or how I thought Jake Westbrook (he's still recovering) would be back from arm surgery and in the starting rotation by the middle of June. I'll just say that from now on, you can just call me Nostradamus.
Selasa, 14 Juli 2009
Cleveland Indians' 20- and 30-something fans have no reason to fret, compared to older fans
Cleveland Indians' 20- and 30-something fans have no reason to fret, compared to older fans
by Mike Peticca, The Plain Dealer Tuesday July 14, 2009, 2:52 PM
Associated Press
Yes, Jose Mesa couldn't save Game 7 of the 1997 World Series, but the big right-hander had some highlight moments, too. Here, he pitches against the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the 1995 World Series, when he earned credit for the Tribe's 7-6, 11-inning win.
Any Cleveland Indians fan can find recent disappointment in, for instance, the Tribe's failure to turn its 3-1 American League Championship Series lead over the Boston Red Sox into a 2007 World Series berth.
Or, in the Indians' uninspiring 2008 season followed by the team's current malaise.
But, if you're just 20 years old, you may have some recall of 1995, when Cleveland played in the World Series for the first time in 41 years, and more memories of the Indians' improbable run to the 1997 Fall Classic. So what if Atlanta's Tom Glavine got the corner, and more, on almost every close pitch, and that Jose Mesa insisted on throwing that slider to Florida's Charles Johnson? At least, things got to that point.
You were in your mid- to late teens during the compelling - if ultimately frustrating - finishes of 2005 and 2007.
And, if you're 30, you could fully appreciate one of the best eras in Cleveland baseball from 1995 to 2001.
You've got it all over the older Indians fans, those who watched the Tribe finish at least 11 games out of first place in every season from 1960 through 1993, excluding the 1981 season, when a two-month players' strike broke the pennant races into two halves.
During the 34-season stretch, the Indians lost 387 games more than they won, and they finished a combined 768 1/2 games out of first place. They had just six winning seasons, the best at 87-75 in 1965, when they finished fifth in the 10-team American League, 15 games behind the Minnesota Twins.
Cleveland's second-best record during the span was 86-75 in 1968, 16 1/2 games behind the Detroit Tigers. The Indians finished third, their best standing in the 34 seasons. It was the last season before the American and National Leagues divided into divisions of six, and later seven teams. Yet, Cleveland was able to finish third just the one time, and fourth six times from 1960 through 1993.
Following are a few instances when Indians fans had something to cheer for, only to have their hopes stilled.
Yawn
Indians fans never saw their team play big games deep into the season. Probably the biggest September games the Indians played were in a twi-night doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland's Municipal Stadium on Sept. 6, 1974. Despite having just a 67-67 record, the 1974 Indians were just 4 1/2 games out of first place in the mediocre AL East when the night began.
Here, thanks to baseball-reference.com, is what happened in the opener, a 2-0 Tribe loss, and the nightcap of the twinbill, a 1-0 Indians' defeat before 27,341 fans.
The Tribe finished the campaign 77-85, in fourth place, 14 games behind the Orioles.
Look out, Yankees
The New York Yankees of Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford and Roger Maris were still a powerhouse, but the 1962 Indians swept a four-game series from them in mid-June. A Sunday, June 17 doubleheader capped the series and drew 70,918 to Municipal Stadium to watch the Indians down New York, 6-1, in the opener and 6-3 in the second game.
The Indians spent 19 days in first place from June 16 through July 13, but they lost 34 of 47 games in one stretch and finished sixth, 80-82, 16 games behind the Yankees.
Looked good
The 1965 Indians were fun to watch, in part because of the return of favorite Rocky Colavito. The Indians were 46-28, tied for first place with the Minnesota Twins on July 4.
Tony Tomsic, Plain Dealer file photo
Slugging outfielder Rocky Colavito led the American League in RBI in 1965.Here's the Indians' July 4 game, a 4-2 win over the Orioles with a crowd of 32,756 at the Stadium.
Alas, the Tribe faded to their 87-75, fifth-place finish, 15 games behind the Twins.
Total fold
The 1966 Indians opened with 10 straight wins and were in first place with a 4 1/2 game lead and 27-10 record on May 28. They were still 45-29, although 6 1/2 games shy of the lead, on July 2, but went on a 28-48 skid through Sept. 16. Cleveland finished 81-81, 17 games behind Baltimore, in fifth place.
A highlight was Sonny Siebert's no-hitter, a 2-0 win over the Washington Senators in Cleveland on June 10.
Never close
In 1968, when the Indians went 86-75 to place third, 16 1/2 games behind Detroit, they were within 2 1/2 games of first on June 6, but never got on a real roll. Pitcher Luis Tiant did, though, including his 19-strikeout, 1-0 10-inning win over Minnesota before 21,135 at the Stadium on July 3.
Over-rated
When Sports Illustrated put the Indians' Joe Carter and Cory Snyder on the cover of their 1987 season preview issue, they ignored that the pitching-poor Indians of 1986 were at least 7 1/2 games - and as many as 16 1/2 - out of first after August 7. They rallied to finish 84-78, in fifth place behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. The 1987 fiasco ended with the Tribe 61-101.
The 1986 Indians peaked at 51-41, five games out of the division lead, with a 7-2 win over the Chicago White Sox in front of 20,524 Cleveland fans on July 23.
The Indians promptly lost 26 of their next 40 games.
by Mike Peticca, The Plain Dealer Tuesday July 14, 2009, 2:52 PM
Associated Press
Yes, Jose Mesa couldn't save Game 7 of the 1997 World Series, but the big right-hander had some highlight moments, too. Here, he pitches against the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the 1995 World Series, when he earned credit for the Tribe's 7-6, 11-inning win.
Any Cleveland Indians fan can find recent disappointment in, for instance, the Tribe's failure to turn its 3-1 American League Championship Series lead over the Boston Red Sox into a 2007 World Series berth.
Or, in the Indians' uninspiring 2008 season followed by the team's current malaise.
But, if you're just 20 years old, you may have some recall of 1995, when Cleveland played in the World Series for the first time in 41 years, and more memories of the Indians' improbable run to the 1997 Fall Classic. So what if Atlanta's Tom Glavine got the corner, and more, on almost every close pitch, and that Jose Mesa insisted on throwing that slider to Florida's Charles Johnson? At least, things got to that point.
You were in your mid- to late teens during the compelling - if ultimately frustrating - finishes of 2005 and 2007.
And, if you're 30, you could fully appreciate one of the best eras in Cleveland baseball from 1995 to 2001.
You've got it all over the older Indians fans, those who watched the Tribe finish at least 11 games out of first place in every season from 1960 through 1993, excluding the 1981 season, when a two-month players' strike broke the pennant races into two halves.
During the 34-season stretch, the Indians lost 387 games more than they won, and they finished a combined 768 1/2 games out of first place. They had just six winning seasons, the best at 87-75 in 1965, when they finished fifth in the 10-team American League, 15 games behind the Minnesota Twins.
Cleveland's second-best record during the span was 86-75 in 1968, 16 1/2 games behind the Detroit Tigers. The Indians finished third, their best standing in the 34 seasons. It was the last season before the American and National Leagues divided into divisions of six, and later seven teams. Yet, Cleveland was able to finish third just the one time, and fourth six times from 1960 through 1993.
Following are a few instances when Indians fans had something to cheer for, only to have their hopes stilled.
Yawn
Indians fans never saw their team play big games deep into the season. Probably the biggest September games the Indians played were in a twi-night doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland's Municipal Stadium on Sept. 6, 1974. Despite having just a 67-67 record, the 1974 Indians were just 4 1/2 games out of first place in the mediocre AL East when the night began.
Here, thanks to baseball-reference.com, is what happened in the opener, a 2-0 Tribe loss, and the nightcap of the twinbill, a 1-0 Indians' defeat before 27,341 fans.
The Tribe finished the campaign 77-85, in fourth place, 14 games behind the Orioles.
Look out, Yankees
The New York Yankees of Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford and Roger Maris were still a powerhouse, but the 1962 Indians swept a four-game series from them in mid-June. A Sunday, June 17 doubleheader capped the series and drew 70,918 to Municipal Stadium to watch the Indians down New York, 6-1, in the opener and 6-3 in the second game.
The Indians spent 19 days in first place from June 16 through July 13, but they lost 34 of 47 games in one stretch and finished sixth, 80-82, 16 games behind the Yankees.
Looked good
The 1965 Indians were fun to watch, in part because of the return of favorite Rocky Colavito. The Indians were 46-28, tied for first place with the Minnesota Twins on July 4.
Tony Tomsic, Plain Dealer file photo
Slugging outfielder Rocky Colavito led the American League in RBI in 1965.Here's the Indians' July 4 game, a 4-2 win over the Orioles with a crowd of 32,756 at the Stadium.
Alas, the Tribe faded to their 87-75, fifth-place finish, 15 games behind the Twins.
Total fold
The 1966 Indians opened with 10 straight wins and were in first place with a 4 1/2 game lead and 27-10 record on May 28. They were still 45-29, although 6 1/2 games shy of the lead, on July 2, but went on a 28-48 skid through Sept. 16. Cleveland finished 81-81, 17 games behind Baltimore, in fifth place.
A highlight was Sonny Siebert's no-hitter, a 2-0 win over the Washington Senators in Cleveland on June 10.
Never close
In 1968, when the Indians went 86-75 to place third, 16 1/2 games behind Detroit, they were within 2 1/2 games of first on June 6, but never got on a real roll. Pitcher Luis Tiant did, though, including his 19-strikeout, 1-0 10-inning win over Minnesota before 21,135 at the Stadium on July 3.
Over-rated
When Sports Illustrated put the Indians' Joe Carter and Cory Snyder on the cover of their 1987 season preview issue, they ignored that the pitching-poor Indians of 1986 were at least 7 1/2 games - and as many as 16 1/2 - out of first after August 7. They rallied to finish 84-78, in fifth place behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. The 1987 fiasco ended with the Tribe 61-101.
The 1986 Indians peaked at 51-41, five games out of the division lead, with a 7-2 win over the Chicago White Sox in front of 20,524 Cleveland fans on July 23.
The Indians promptly lost 26 of their next 40 games.
All-Star Blog: Albert Belle makes a mid-summer phone call to talk Cleveland Indians, steroids
All-Star Blog: Albert Belle makes a mid-summer phone call to talk Cleveland Indians, steroids
by Paul Hoynes/Plain Dealer Reporter Tuesday July 14, 2009, 4:29 PM
UPDATED: 5:41 p.m.
Plain Dealer file
Albert Belle says baseball should reveal the names of all the players on the steroid list and get past the issue. ST. LOUIS -- It just isn't a baseball season unless Albert Belle calls.
Belle, the worst-tempered player and most intimidating hitter I've ever covered, called Monday while I was walking into Busch Stadium to get ready for the home run derby. Belle was frustrated with the Indians' first half and wanted to talk about former teammate Manny Ramirez testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs.
"If they're not going to take anybody's stats away, then what difference does a positive test make?" said Belle. "And what about those 101 players who tested positive and haven't been named yet? I say release all their names so we can get done beating this dead horse."
Regarding Ramirez, Belle said, "Manny is going to hit no matter what. He's a talented kid."
Belle played for the Indians from 1989 through 1996. He's No.2 on their all-time list with 242 homers. Jim Thome, a former teammate, is No.1 with 334.
In his 12-year big-league career, Belle hit 381 homers. Along the way, he had more temper tantrums than Billy Martin and Lou Piniella combined.
Some of those tantrums were directed at me. Realizing that Belle was calling from Scottsdale, Ariz., and I was in St. Louis, I asked him if he'd ever used steroids. I already knew he'd used a corked bat.
"I never did," said Belle. "I didn't need to. All you have to do is check the trainers' weight charts. Every year I'd come to camp weighing 225 to 230 and end the season at about 215 to 220."
I ventured to say that his temper tantrums could have been interpreted as 'roid rage.
Said Belle, "No, I was just an angry black man."
Regarding the Indians, Belle said, "I hope they don't blame Eric Wedge for all this. You've got to have players to win."
Belle was told Wedge's job was in danger. When asked if he would want to manage the Indians, "Unless they got me a lot of new players, I don't need a headache like that."
Five times Belle made the All-Star team during his carer. His last All-Star game appearance was with the White Sox. The game was played at Jacobs Field and Belle refused to pose for the team picture in the outfield because of his running feud with Indians fans.
"The first time you play in an All-Star game, it's great," said Belle. "After that, you can do without it."
Belle, 42, was forced to retire because of an injury to his right hip. It probably cost him a spot in the Hall of Fame. Now he may need some work done on his left hip as well.
"A couple of my friends called me and said you haven't ripped anybody on the Indians all season," said Belle. "I told them, 'He must be getting old.'"
We all do, Albert. We all do.
by Paul Hoynes/Plain Dealer Reporter Tuesday July 14, 2009, 4:29 PM
UPDATED: 5:41 p.m.
Plain Dealer file
Albert Belle says baseball should reveal the names of all the players on the steroid list and get past the issue. ST. LOUIS -- It just isn't a baseball season unless Albert Belle calls.
Belle, the worst-tempered player and most intimidating hitter I've ever covered, called Monday while I was walking into Busch Stadium to get ready for the home run derby. Belle was frustrated with the Indians' first half and wanted to talk about former teammate Manny Ramirez testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs.
"If they're not going to take anybody's stats away, then what difference does a positive test make?" said Belle. "And what about those 101 players who tested positive and haven't been named yet? I say release all their names so we can get done beating this dead horse."
Regarding Ramirez, Belle said, "Manny is going to hit no matter what. He's a talented kid."
Belle played for the Indians from 1989 through 1996. He's No.2 on their all-time list with 242 homers. Jim Thome, a former teammate, is No.1 with 334.
In his 12-year big-league career, Belle hit 381 homers. Along the way, he had more temper tantrums than Billy Martin and Lou Piniella combined.
Some of those tantrums were directed at me. Realizing that Belle was calling from Scottsdale, Ariz., and I was in St. Louis, I asked him if he'd ever used steroids. I already knew he'd used a corked bat.
"I never did," said Belle. "I didn't need to. All you have to do is check the trainers' weight charts. Every year I'd come to camp weighing 225 to 230 and end the season at about 215 to 220."
I ventured to say that his temper tantrums could have been interpreted as 'roid rage.
Said Belle, "No, I was just an angry black man."
Regarding the Indians, Belle said, "I hope they don't blame Eric Wedge for all this. You've got to have players to win."
Belle was told Wedge's job was in danger. When asked if he would want to manage the Indians, "Unless they got me a lot of new players, I don't need a headache like that."
Five times Belle made the All-Star team during his carer. His last All-Star game appearance was with the White Sox. The game was played at Jacobs Field and Belle refused to pose for the team picture in the outfield because of his running feud with Indians fans.
"The first time you play in an All-Star game, it's great," said Belle. "After that, you can do without it."
Belle, 42, was forced to retire because of an injury to his right hip. It probably cost him a spot in the Hall of Fame. Now he may need some work done on his left hip as well.
"A couple of my friends called me and said you haven't ripped anybody on the Indians all season," said Belle. "I told them, 'He must be getting old.'"
We all do, Albert. We all do.
Senin, 29 Juni 2009
Promising Indians Go From First to Last
Promising Indians go from first to worst
One win from the 2007 World Series, Cleveland is now last in the AL; what happened?
By Jerry CrasnickESPN.comArchive
"We got beat by a great team. We've got a lot of young guys on this team. This wasn't the end of something. It was the beginning of something."-- Cleveland first baseman Ryan Garko after the Indians, one win from the World Series, blew a 3-games-to-1 lead against Boston in the 2007 American League Championship Series.
The beginning of what, exactly?
Andrew Weber/US PresswireGrady Sizemore, just activated from the DL, has an OPS 100 points below his career average.
Garko, a thoughtful and soft-spoken Stanford graduate, never could have envisioned the Indians' going 37-53 to begin the 2008 season, rendering the second half irrelevant, or CC Sabathia wearing a Milwaukee Brewers uniform by the All-Star break.
He didn't foresee Travis Hafner hurting his shoulder, Jhonny Peralta's power declining so markedly, or pitchers Fausto Carmona and Rafael Perez, cornerstones of the 96-win team in 2007, going south so quickly. For the sake of accuracy, Perez actually traveled 142 miles southwest to Triple-A Columbus after a demotion in May, and Carmona was last seen undergoing a ground-floor remake in Arizona.
Garko couldn't have predicted the great bullpen disaster of 2008 or a similar meltdown in 2009 after general manager Mark Shapiro made relief pitching a priority during the hot stove season. With the Kerry Wood and Masa Kobayashi signings, injuries to Joe Smith and Rafael Betancourt, and Jensen Lewis' regression, Indians fans have learned to watch the seventh, eighth and ninth innings through splayed fingers.
So here's where things stand: The Indians, a fashionable AL Central pick in March, are 12 games behind first-place Detroit and last in the division. Shapiro can't make it through a day without answering another question about manager Eric Wedge's job security, and he began the process of selling off short-term assets for long-term value when he traded infielder Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez on Saturday.
If this comes as any consolation to beleaguered Tribe fans, Shapiro is convinced the picture isn't as grim as April, May and June make it appear.
BROKEN RECORD
The Indians have fallen well short of expectations since the 2007 ALCS. Here are the win percentages and run differentials among AL teams since the start of the 2008 season:
"I truly believe in my heart that we're going to be back in the playoffs again in the next three years," Shapiro said. "As much as I feel [the fans'] pain, I can't get caught up in the emotion of the history here. I don't believe we're going to be a bad team. I don't believe this is the beginning of another 40 years of losing. I believe this is a bad season. That's what it is."
The pain is more acute because the Indians have such a knack for snatching despair from the jaws of exhilaration. After putting Boston on the mat in '07, the Indians sent their staff ace to the mound for the clincher. But Sabathia, too keyed up by the stakes, threw a clunker against Josh Beckett. The series returned to Fenway Park, where the Red Sox outscored the Indians 23-4 in games 6 and 7 to advance to the World Series.
"Any time you have the opportunity to advance in the postseason and get that close, there's some level of disappointment when you don't reach your ultimate goal of winning the World Series," said Chris Antonetti, Cleveland assistant GM. "We valued that at the time. We understood that for teams in our market size, with our resources, it's exceptionally challenging to repeat and sustain that level of success.'"
For all their problems this season, the Indians have no plans to rip it up and start anew right now. So unless somebody overwhelms Shapiro with a package for Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez, the Indians will try to fill their holes, put this season's disappointment behind them and compete for a playoff berth in 2010.
There's nothing like a 31-46 record to elicit a little introspection. Here are some of the long- and short-term realities Shapiro and Antonetti must confront over the next few months and the offseason.
The pitching problemHafner's $57 million contract looks exorbitant in hindsight, but he still has a .959 OPS in 31 games this season. Even with Hafner and Grady Sizemore's missing considerable time because of injuries, the Indians rank third in the AL in runs.
CLEVELAND ROCKED
The Indians' pitching numbers have gone down since 2007. In parentheses are where they ranked in MLB:
The problem is pitching. Cleveland has one starter, Lee, with an ERA of less than 5.00. The Indians' staff has issued 310 walks, most in the majors, and has given up 88 home runs, seventh most in the game.
How bad is the bullpen? The Indians have been outscored 66-32 in the eighth inning, and the relievers have allowed 58 of 140 inherited runners to score.
And there simply is no depth for when things go wrong. The Toronto Blue Jays have survived an incredible run of pitching injuries with help from a Scott Richmond here and a Ricky Romero and Brian Tallet there, but the Indians can't find anyone to carry the burden behind Lee.
Which leads to our second issue …
A break in the pipelineThe Brandon Phillips trade to Cincinnati notwithstanding, it's hard to argue with Shapiro's trade history. He acquired Hafner from Texas for Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz, stole Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo from Seattle for Eduardo Perez and Ben Broussard, and acquired elite catching prospect Carlos Santana from the Dodgers for Casey Blake last July. And what more can be said about the deal that brought Sizemore, Lee and Phillips from Montreal for Bartolo Colon? It was a classic heist.
The Indians have been successful in Latin America, and while you can criticize some of Shapiro's recent free-agent signings, Jason Michaels, David Dellucci and even Wood don't have the type of contracts that are going to strangle the team for years to come.
So what's the problem? In the spectrum of player acquisition options, Cleveland's lack of success early in the draft stands front and center.
Shapiro has been the Indians' general manager since 2001.
Since 2000, Cleveland has had 19 first-round or supplemental picks. The most successful, pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, has a 23-24 record in the majors, and all of that has come with Baltimore.
Beyond Guthrie, the landscape is essentially bare. First-rounders Corey Smith, Alan Horne, Daniel Denham and Brad Snyder did nothing. Matt Whitney, Michael Aubrey and Adam Miller got hurt. And it's too soon to tell what Trevor Crowe, Beau Mills, David Huff and Lonnie Chisenhall will contribute over the long haul.
Cleveland management contends the early misses are offset in part by some later "finds" that bring the team's overall performance closer to average. Garko, Lewis, Ben Francisco, Aaron Laffey and the departed Ryan Church and Luke Scott are among the players who fit the description. Still, there's not a Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Josh Johnson or Jonathan Papelbon in the bunch.
It doesn't help that the Indians rarely pick among the top handful of teams in the first round, where the sure things are found. Cleveland has picked in the top 10 only once this decade. In 2004, the Indians had Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew atop their board but passed on both players for financial reasons and selected Jeremy Sowers, a Vanderbilt product who is 33-14 with a 2.47 ERA in the minors and 14-24/5.18 in the majors.
Some draft watchers think the Indians are too stat-focused and select too many corner infielders, outfielders and DH types rather than athletes and middle-of-the-diamond players. But sometimes it's more about the money than the draft philosophy.
In 2005, the Indians drafted Washington high school pitcher Tim Lincecum in the 42nd round, but ownership wasn't willing to buck the commissioner's office and spend the $1 million or so required to sign him. Think Lincecum wouldn't look good in that rotation right now?
Managing expectationsThe Shapiro-Antonetti tandem gets more love from national media outlets than, say, White Sox GM Kenny Williams, who is perceived as arrogant and overly blunt. Is it because the Cleveland guys are media favorites? Perhaps. But their front office peers also regard Shapiro and Antonetti as extremely bright, people-oriented, innovative thinkers.
"If you gave Mark an organization with the resources of the Red Sox or the Yankees and the ability to paper over the occasional mistake we all make, he would absolutely run a club that would be a force year in and year out," an AL executive said. "It becomes far more difficult in a market like Cleveland, where your mistakes can linger or derail you for years to come. The margin of error is far thinner."
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Here's how the Indians stacked up, payroll- and performance-wise, against their AL Central competition from 2002-08 (Payroll source: USA Today salary database):
The Indians' Opening Day payroll of $81.5 million this year was almost dead even with the payroll in 2002, Shapiro's first season as general manager. Surprisingly, the cost-conscious Minnesota Twins spent more money than Cleveland on player salaries each year from 2003 through 2007.
Indians fans might blanch when Shapiro says he expects the team back in the playoffs in the "next three years," but that's the way life works for teams in Cleveland's economic stratum. Beyond the big boys in New York, Boston and Los Angeles, most clubs live in a world in which sporadic postseason appearances are the reality.
During Shapiro's tenure as GM, the Indians have a .503 winning percentage, two 90-win seasons and one postseason appearance. The Twins and Florida Marlins have made better use of their resources, as a rule. But Cleveland's performance looks pretty good compared to those of Texas, Seattle, Detroit and several other teams that have outspent the Indians by a wide margin and have less to show for it.
The Pythagorean problemThe Indians have been outscored by only 27 runs this season, but they're 15 games below .500. That makes them underperformers, based on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem of win expectations.
That's nothing new for a franchise that's posted fewer wins than its run differential would suggest several times in recent years.
The Pythagorean disconnect generally is attributed to three things: the manager, the bullpen or luck. Since no team can be so unlucky that often, the conversation inevitably leads back to Wedge and the relievers.
The Indians need to take a hard look at their underachieving bullpens. Is it a question of evaluation or usage? Did the Indians misjudge Lewis based on his 66 innings last season? Did Wedge burn out Perez with overuse in 2007 and 2008? Bullpen performances are the hardest things in baseball to predict, but when they're bad enough to wreck entire seasons, it's a problem.
The burden of historyWhen a city's fan base is "traumatized," as Shapiro calls it, disappointments are cumulative. Every Kerry Wood blown save is somehow linked to Earnest Byner's goal-line fumble, "The Drive" or Charles Nagy's failure against Edgar Renteria in 1997. The sense of desperation and fatalism can become an emotional anchor. Just ask Boston Red Sox players what the atmosphere was like pre-2004.
In Cleveland, the measuring stick for the Indians remains the great John Hart-Mike Hargrove-Charlie Manuel teams of the late '90s. The Indians averaged 93 wins a year from 1995 through 2001, made the playoffs six times, and featured the likes of Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Albert Belle.
During that span, the Tribe made history with 455 straight sellouts at Jacobs Field. But those days are long gone. The Indians finished 12th in the majors in attendance in 2002. They haven't ranked higher than 21st since, and this season, they're 27th with 22,557 a game. The reality is, Cleveland is an economically depressed town, and it's a grind for the Indians to sell tickets, win or lose.
"Everything we do now is compared to what we accomplished then," Shapiro said. "If you're around our team, that's what you feel. It's not 2007. It's '94 to '01.
"That was a very special and unique juncture in Indians history that should be cherished, but it's not a fair barometer. We had payrolls in the top five, and we had a unique set of circumstances. A new stadium. Not winning for 40 years. No football team, a poor basketball team and an economy on the uptick. All those things created a very special level of revenues and a very special juncture in Indians baseball."
This year is special only for the trade speculation it's engendered, the anguish it's created and the questions it's produced. It's not even July, and the Cleveland front office and fan base already are looking ahead to 2010. The real-life version of "Major League'' will have to wait.
Jerry Crasnick covers baseball for ESPN.com. His book "License To Deal" was published by Rodale.
One win from the 2007 World Series, Cleveland is now last in the AL; what happened?
By Jerry CrasnickESPN.comArchive
"We got beat by a great team. We've got a lot of young guys on this team. This wasn't the end of something. It was the beginning of something."-- Cleveland first baseman Ryan Garko after the Indians, one win from the World Series, blew a 3-games-to-1 lead against Boston in the 2007 American League Championship Series.
The beginning of what, exactly?
Andrew Weber/US PresswireGrady Sizemore, just activated from the DL, has an OPS 100 points below his career average.
Garko, a thoughtful and soft-spoken Stanford graduate, never could have envisioned the Indians' going 37-53 to begin the 2008 season, rendering the second half irrelevant, or CC Sabathia wearing a Milwaukee Brewers uniform by the All-Star break.
He didn't foresee Travis Hafner hurting his shoulder, Jhonny Peralta's power declining so markedly, or pitchers Fausto Carmona and Rafael Perez, cornerstones of the 96-win team in 2007, going south so quickly. For the sake of accuracy, Perez actually traveled 142 miles southwest to Triple-A Columbus after a demotion in May, and Carmona was last seen undergoing a ground-floor remake in Arizona.
Garko couldn't have predicted the great bullpen disaster of 2008 or a similar meltdown in 2009 after general manager Mark Shapiro made relief pitching a priority during the hot stove season. With the Kerry Wood and Masa Kobayashi signings, injuries to Joe Smith and Rafael Betancourt, and Jensen Lewis' regression, Indians fans have learned to watch the seventh, eighth and ninth innings through splayed fingers.
So here's where things stand: The Indians, a fashionable AL Central pick in March, are 12 games behind first-place Detroit and last in the division. Shapiro can't make it through a day without answering another question about manager Eric Wedge's job security, and he began the process of selling off short-term assets for long-term value when he traded infielder Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for reliever Chris Perez on Saturday.
If this comes as any consolation to beleaguered Tribe fans, Shapiro is convinced the picture isn't as grim as April, May and June make it appear.
BROKEN RECORD
The Indians have fallen well short of expectations since the 2007 ALCS. Here are the win percentages and run differentials among AL teams since the start of the 2008 season:
"I truly believe in my heart that we're going to be back in the playoffs again in the next three years," Shapiro said. "As much as I feel [the fans'] pain, I can't get caught up in the emotion of the history here. I don't believe we're going to be a bad team. I don't believe this is the beginning of another 40 years of losing. I believe this is a bad season. That's what it is."
The pain is more acute because the Indians have such a knack for snatching despair from the jaws of exhilaration. After putting Boston on the mat in '07, the Indians sent their staff ace to the mound for the clincher. But Sabathia, too keyed up by the stakes, threw a clunker against Josh Beckett. The series returned to Fenway Park, where the Red Sox outscored the Indians 23-4 in games 6 and 7 to advance to the World Series.
"Any time you have the opportunity to advance in the postseason and get that close, there's some level of disappointment when you don't reach your ultimate goal of winning the World Series," said Chris Antonetti, Cleveland assistant GM. "We valued that at the time. We understood that for teams in our market size, with our resources, it's exceptionally challenging to repeat and sustain that level of success.'"
For all their problems this season, the Indians have no plans to rip it up and start anew right now. So unless somebody overwhelms Shapiro with a package for Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez, the Indians will try to fill their holes, put this season's disappointment behind them and compete for a playoff berth in 2010.
There's nothing like a 31-46 record to elicit a little introspection. Here are some of the long- and short-term realities Shapiro and Antonetti must confront over the next few months and the offseason.
The pitching problemHafner's $57 million contract looks exorbitant in hindsight, but he still has a .959 OPS in 31 games this season. Even with Hafner and Grady Sizemore's missing considerable time because of injuries, the Indians rank third in the AL in runs.
CLEVELAND ROCKED
The Indians' pitching numbers have gone down since 2007. In parentheses are where they ranked in MLB:
The problem is pitching. Cleveland has one starter, Lee, with an ERA of less than 5.00. The Indians' staff has issued 310 walks, most in the majors, and has given up 88 home runs, seventh most in the game.
How bad is the bullpen? The Indians have been outscored 66-32 in the eighth inning, and the relievers have allowed 58 of 140 inherited runners to score.
And there simply is no depth for when things go wrong. The Toronto Blue Jays have survived an incredible run of pitching injuries with help from a Scott Richmond here and a Ricky Romero and Brian Tallet there, but the Indians can't find anyone to carry the burden behind Lee.
Which leads to our second issue …
A break in the pipelineThe Brandon Phillips trade to Cincinnati notwithstanding, it's hard to argue with Shapiro's trade history. He acquired Hafner from Texas for Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz, stole Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo from Seattle for Eduardo Perez and Ben Broussard, and acquired elite catching prospect Carlos Santana from the Dodgers for Casey Blake last July. And what more can be said about the deal that brought Sizemore, Lee and Phillips from Montreal for Bartolo Colon? It was a classic heist.
The Indians have been successful in Latin America, and while you can criticize some of Shapiro's recent free-agent signings, Jason Michaels, David Dellucci and even Wood don't have the type of contracts that are going to strangle the team for years to come.
So what's the problem? In the spectrum of player acquisition options, Cleveland's lack of success early in the draft stands front and center.
Shapiro has been the Indians' general manager since 2001.
Since 2000, Cleveland has had 19 first-round or supplemental picks. The most successful, pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, has a 23-24 record in the majors, and all of that has come with Baltimore.
Beyond Guthrie, the landscape is essentially bare. First-rounders Corey Smith, Alan Horne, Daniel Denham and Brad Snyder did nothing. Matt Whitney, Michael Aubrey and Adam Miller got hurt. And it's too soon to tell what Trevor Crowe, Beau Mills, David Huff and Lonnie Chisenhall will contribute over the long haul.
Cleveland management contends the early misses are offset in part by some later "finds" that bring the team's overall performance closer to average. Garko, Lewis, Ben Francisco, Aaron Laffey and the departed Ryan Church and Luke Scott are among the players who fit the description. Still, there's not a Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Josh Johnson or Jonathan Papelbon in the bunch.
It doesn't help that the Indians rarely pick among the top handful of teams in the first round, where the sure things are found. Cleveland has picked in the top 10 only once this decade. In 2004, the Indians had Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew atop their board but passed on both players for financial reasons and selected Jeremy Sowers, a Vanderbilt product who is 33-14 with a 2.47 ERA in the minors and 14-24/5.18 in the majors.
Some draft watchers think the Indians are too stat-focused and select too many corner infielders, outfielders and DH types rather than athletes and middle-of-the-diamond players. But sometimes it's more about the money than the draft philosophy.
In 2005, the Indians drafted Washington high school pitcher Tim Lincecum in the 42nd round, but ownership wasn't willing to buck the commissioner's office and spend the $1 million or so required to sign him. Think Lincecum wouldn't look good in that rotation right now?
Managing expectationsThe Shapiro-Antonetti tandem gets more love from national media outlets than, say, White Sox GM Kenny Williams, who is perceived as arrogant and overly blunt. Is it because the Cleveland guys are media favorites? Perhaps. But their front office peers also regard Shapiro and Antonetti as extremely bright, people-oriented, innovative thinkers.
"If you gave Mark an organization with the resources of the Red Sox or the Yankees and the ability to paper over the occasional mistake we all make, he would absolutely run a club that would be a force year in and year out," an AL executive said. "It becomes far more difficult in a market like Cleveland, where your mistakes can linger or derail you for years to come. The margin of error is far thinner."
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Here's how the Indians stacked up, payroll- and performance-wise, against their AL Central competition from 2002-08 (Payroll source: USA Today salary database):
The Indians' Opening Day payroll of $81.5 million this year was almost dead even with the payroll in 2002, Shapiro's first season as general manager. Surprisingly, the cost-conscious Minnesota Twins spent more money than Cleveland on player salaries each year from 2003 through 2007.
Indians fans might blanch when Shapiro says he expects the team back in the playoffs in the "next three years," but that's the way life works for teams in Cleveland's economic stratum. Beyond the big boys in New York, Boston and Los Angeles, most clubs live in a world in which sporadic postseason appearances are the reality.
During Shapiro's tenure as GM, the Indians have a .503 winning percentage, two 90-win seasons and one postseason appearance. The Twins and Florida Marlins have made better use of their resources, as a rule. But Cleveland's performance looks pretty good compared to those of Texas, Seattle, Detroit and several other teams that have outspent the Indians by a wide margin and have less to show for it.
The Pythagorean problemThe Indians have been outscored by only 27 runs this season, but they're 15 games below .500. That makes them underperformers, based on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem of win expectations.
That's nothing new for a franchise that's posted fewer wins than its run differential would suggest several times in recent years.
The Pythagorean disconnect generally is attributed to three things: the manager, the bullpen or luck. Since no team can be so unlucky that often, the conversation inevitably leads back to Wedge and the relievers.
The Indians need to take a hard look at their underachieving bullpens. Is it a question of evaluation or usage? Did the Indians misjudge Lewis based on his 66 innings last season? Did Wedge burn out Perez with overuse in 2007 and 2008? Bullpen performances are the hardest things in baseball to predict, but when they're bad enough to wreck entire seasons, it's a problem.
The burden of historyWhen a city's fan base is "traumatized," as Shapiro calls it, disappointments are cumulative. Every Kerry Wood blown save is somehow linked to Earnest Byner's goal-line fumble, "The Drive" or Charles Nagy's failure against Edgar Renteria in 1997. The sense of desperation and fatalism can become an emotional anchor. Just ask Boston Red Sox players what the atmosphere was like pre-2004.
In Cleveland, the measuring stick for the Indians remains the great John Hart-Mike Hargrove-Charlie Manuel teams of the late '90s. The Indians averaged 93 wins a year from 1995 through 2001, made the playoffs six times, and featured the likes of Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Albert Belle.
During that span, the Tribe made history with 455 straight sellouts at Jacobs Field. But those days are long gone. The Indians finished 12th in the majors in attendance in 2002. They haven't ranked higher than 21st since, and this season, they're 27th with 22,557 a game. The reality is, Cleveland is an economically depressed town, and it's a grind for the Indians to sell tickets, win or lose.
"Everything we do now is compared to what we accomplished then," Shapiro said. "If you're around our team, that's what you feel. It's not 2007. It's '94 to '01.
"That was a very special and unique juncture in Indians history that should be cherished, but it's not a fair barometer. We had payrolls in the top five, and we had a unique set of circumstances. A new stadium. Not winning for 40 years. No football team, a poor basketball team and an economy on the uptick. All those things created a very special level of revenues and a very special juncture in Indians baseball."
This year is special only for the trade speculation it's engendered, the anguish it's created and the questions it's produced. It's not even July, and the Cleveland front office and fan base already are looking ahead to 2010. The real-life version of "Major League'' will have to wait.
Jerry Crasnick covers baseball for ESPN.com. His book "License To Deal" was published by Rodale.
Selasa, 12 Mei 2009
"What makes players, coaches and managers successful is taking it one day at a time. Right now, I feel the answers are here with Eric, this coaching staff and these players. I don't think those are the kind of things I should be concentrating on right now."
Wedge took responsibility for the Tribe's poor start Monday. Said Shapiro, "Responsibility is shared. Accountability rests with me."
Wedge took responsibility for the Tribe's poor start Monday. Said Shapiro, "Responsibility is shared. Accountability rests with me."
Selasa, 21 April 2009
13 Games do not make a season
CLEVELAND -- Thirteen games do not a major-league season make. They do not even cover half of a month.
A 13-game sample is enough, though, to get at least a feel for a club and its tendencies. Here is a capsule look at what we think we know about the 4-9 Tribe, which opens a nine-game home stand tonight against Kansas City:
The Indians are not afraid of the big, bad Yankees in the Boogie Down. They split a four-game series in the Bronx that ended Sunday. An opponent usually will gladly accept a four-game road split, but the Indians departed with a sour taste because they had a lead in each game and finished with 11 homers and 40 runs. They posted nine- and 14-run innings.
Too bad the Tribe does not return to New York this season, when the temperature has had time to rise and balls fly that much farther in the pricey new bandbox.
Despite the .308 winning percentage and last-place status, the Indians are very much alive in the Central. Entering Monday, the Royals, White Sox and Tigers were tied for first at 7-5, meaning the Tribe was just 3.5 games back.
Kansas City being anywhere near the lead is no concern for the rest of the division, because it won't last. The White Sox, the team to watch, nonetheless are selectively implementing youngsters. The Tigers are good enough to hang around. The Twins (7-7) figure to have another gritty club under manager Ron Gardenhire. Which is to say none of the four will run away and hide, giving the Indians time to figure it out.
The rotation will not be evoking memories of Early Wynn and the boys. No surprise here: Tribe starters have been shaky even as Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Carl Pavano showed signs of life in New York. The rotation does not feature anyone who sits in the mid-90s, meaning less margin for error. One of these days, one will pitch into the seventh inning. Lee and Pavano own the only quality starts (six innings, three or fewer earned).
Lee will need to work (extra) hard for his money. Not that Lee pitched on cruise control en route to 22-3 last season. A starter winning one game in the majors, let alone 22, is not easy. It's just that otherworldly command of the fastball made it appear easy. Fastball location has not been as precise through three starts this season, leading to a 1-2 record and 6.75 ERA. He will be forced to rely more on curves and change-ups and on keeping batters guessing.
At its current rate of usage, the bullpen -- with the notable exception of one man -- will be gassed by July. It stands to reason that starters who cannot get deep into games wreck havoc on those who follow. The bullpen might not be as good as most thought it would be, anyway.
That one man, closer Kerry Wood, needs to find things to do to keep himself occupied late in meaningful games. Wood has made four appearances, one in a save situation. He is on pace for 13 save situations. Owner Larry Dolan is not paying Wood and his rocket arm $10 million annually to collect dust.
Rafael Perez needs to reset his body clock or begin his season in May. Perez has stunk out the joint for yet another April, his slider allergic to early-season cold. He entered with a 4.73 ERA in March-April -- worst of any month in his career. He is at 16.71 in seven appearances this season.
Wood and Mark DeRosa, who played for the Cubs last season, need not worry about adjusting to a new team. Wood intimidates simply by putting on the uniform. DeRosa is an old-school gamer who dared suggest, correctly, that the great Mariano Rivera might actually throw a pitch that should be called a ball when the batter does not swing at it. DeRosa was called out on strikes to end a 6-5 loss Friday, then went 4-for-7 with six RBI in a 22-4 victory Saturday.
Shin-Soo Choo has sun issues. Bat? Check. Arm? Check. Sunglasses? Need new lenses. Choo has two strikes against him already, having lost one in right and one in left, both resulting in inning-changing extra-base hits. No question the sun can be bright and unforgiving, but Gold Glovers might not lose two in a season.
If Victor Martinez stays healthy, he can challenge for a batting title. Martinez is hitting .358 (19-for-53). A handful of his outs have been loud. Martinez won multiple batting crowns in the minors and entered this season as a .298 hitter in 722 major-league games. Matchup lefties are negated because he's a switch-hitter. His primary position, catcher, puts him at a distinct disadvantage, but if Minnesota's Joe Mauer can winning batting crowns, why not Vic?
Grady Sizemore no longer can be expected to hit .300. He hit .289 in 2005 -- his first full season in the majors -- and .290 in 2006. But he has gone .277 and .268 since and is at .259 with 17 strikeouts this season. His swing is not easily adjusted to slap the ball the other way for average-saving singles.
Just because Sizemore won't hit .300 doesn't mean he's not a dynamic leadoff man. He entered this season with a .370 on-base percentage and .491 slugging percentage; those numbers are at .385 and .574, respectively, through 13 games.
Travis Hafner is showing glimpses of a return to Pronk, or at least PronkLite. The slimmer Hafner has four homers, four doubles and six walks. Yes, he has14 strikeouts. But the key to his being feared again, the surgically-repaired right shoulder, seems to be holding up well under game stress.
Derek Shelton's batters know how to work pitchers, good result or bad result. They are hitting .280 and have scored 83 runs, though a failure to come through with runners in scoring position has cost them games. Along the way, they have struck out a staggering 115 times but managed 67 walks.
Manny Ramirez will not be coming back to Cleveland -- not today, next week, next month or next year. Neither will Jim Thome.
A 13-game sample is enough, though, to get at least a feel for a club and its tendencies. Here is a capsule look at what we think we know about the 4-9 Tribe, which opens a nine-game home stand tonight against Kansas City:
The Indians are not afraid of the big, bad Yankees in the Boogie Down. They split a four-game series in the Bronx that ended Sunday. An opponent usually will gladly accept a four-game road split, but the Indians departed with a sour taste because they had a lead in each game and finished with 11 homers and 40 runs. They posted nine- and 14-run innings.
Too bad the Tribe does not return to New York this season, when the temperature has had time to rise and balls fly that much farther in the pricey new bandbox.
Despite the .308 winning percentage and last-place status, the Indians are very much alive in the Central. Entering Monday, the Royals, White Sox and Tigers were tied for first at 7-5, meaning the Tribe was just 3.5 games back.
Kansas City being anywhere near the lead is no concern for the rest of the division, because it won't last. The White Sox, the team to watch, nonetheless are selectively implementing youngsters. The Tigers are good enough to hang around. The Twins (7-7) figure to have another gritty club under manager Ron Gardenhire. Which is to say none of the four will run away and hide, giving the Indians time to figure it out.
The rotation will not be evoking memories of Early Wynn and the boys. No surprise here: Tribe starters have been shaky even as Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Carl Pavano showed signs of life in New York. The rotation does not feature anyone who sits in the mid-90s, meaning less margin for error. One of these days, one will pitch into the seventh inning. Lee and Pavano own the only quality starts (six innings, three or fewer earned).
Lee will need to work (extra) hard for his money. Not that Lee pitched on cruise control en route to 22-3 last season. A starter winning one game in the majors, let alone 22, is not easy. It's just that otherworldly command of the fastball made it appear easy. Fastball location has not been as precise through three starts this season, leading to a 1-2 record and 6.75 ERA. He will be forced to rely more on curves and change-ups and on keeping batters guessing.
At its current rate of usage, the bullpen -- with the notable exception of one man -- will be gassed by July. It stands to reason that starters who cannot get deep into games wreck havoc on those who follow. The bullpen might not be as good as most thought it would be, anyway.
That one man, closer Kerry Wood, needs to find things to do to keep himself occupied late in meaningful games. Wood has made four appearances, one in a save situation. He is on pace for 13 save situations. Owner Larry Dolan is not paying Wood and his rocket arm $10 million annually to collect dust.
Rafael Perez needs to reset his body clock or begin his season in May. Perez has stunk out the joint for yet another April, his slider allergic to early-season cold. He entered with a 4.73 ERA in March-April -- worst of any month in his career. He is at 16.71 in seven appearances this season.
Wood and Mark DeRosa, who played for the Cubs last season, need not worry about adjusting to a new team. Wood intimidates simply by putting on the uniform. DeRosa is an old-school gamer who dared suggest, correctly, that the great Mariano Rivera might actually throw a pitch that should be called a ball when the batter does not swing at it. DeRosa was called out on strikes to end a 6-5 loss Friday, then went 4-for-7 with six RBI in a 22-4 victory Saturday.
Shin-Soo Choo has sun issues. Bat? Check. Arm? Check. Sunglasses? Need new lenses. Choo has two strikes against him already, having lost one in right and one in left, both resulting in inning-changing extra-base hits. No question the sun can be bright and unforgiving, but Gold Glovers might not lose two in a season.
If Victor Martinez stays healthy, he can challenge for a batting title. Martinez is hitting .358 (19-for-53). A handful of his outs have been loud. Martinez won multiple batting crowns in the minors and entered this season as a .298 hitter in 722 major-league games. Matchup lefties are negated because he's a switch-hitter. His primary position, catcher, puts him at a distinct disadvantage, but if Minnesota's Joe Mauer can winning batting crowns, why not Vic?
Grady Sizemore no longer can be expected to hit .300. He hit .289 in 2005 -- his first full season in the majors -- and .290 in 2006. But he has gone .277 and .268 since and is at .259 with 17 strikeouts this season. His swing is not easily adjusted to slap the ball the other way for average-saving singles.
Just because Sizemore won't hit .300 doesn't mean he's not a dynamic leadoff man. He entered this season with a .370 on-base percentage and .491 slugging percentage; those numbers are at .385 and .574, respectively, through 13 games.
Travis Hafner is showing glimpses of a return to Pronk, or at least PronkLite. The slimmer Hafner has four homers, four doubles and six walks. Yes, he has14 strikeouts. But the key to his being feared again, the surgically-repaired right shoulder, seems to be holding up well under game stress.
Derek Shelton's batters know how to work pitchers, good result or bad result. They are hitting .280 and have scored 83 runs, though a failure to come through with runners in scoring position has cost them games. Along the way, they have struck out a staggering 115 times but managed 67 walks.
Manny Ramirez will not be coming back to Cleveland -- not today, next week, next month or next year. Neither will Jim Thome.
Minggu, 05 April 2009
Are the 2009 Cleveland Indians well-armed? Inside the Opening Day pitching staff
Are the 2009 Cleveland Indians well-armed? Inside the Opening Day pitching staff
by Paul Hoynes/Plain Dealer Reporter
Saturday April 04, 2009, 8:30 PM
HOUSTON -- Here's a breakdown of the Indians' 12-man pitching staff. Stats include batting average against (BAA) and what right-handed hitters (RH) and left-handed hitters (LH) hit against each pitcher last year.
STARTING ROTATION
LHP Cliff Lee
Key 2008 stats: 22-3, 2.54 ERA, 223.1 innings, .253 BAA, .245 RH, .272 LH.
Skinny: Lee, last year's AL Cy Young winner, throws a two- and four-seam fastball, cut fastball, slider, curve and change-up. He tops out at 93 mph, but usually throws between 89 and 91.
Comment: Lee had a tough spring, but came through it healthy. It will be interesting to see how responds to being a marked man because of the Cy Young Award. He doesn't have to win 20 again, 14 to 18 victories wouldn't be bad.
RHP Fausto Carmona
Key 2008 stats: 8-7, 5.44 ERA, 120.2 innings, .271 BAA, .230 RH, .303 LH.
Skinny: Carmona is a power pitcher with a sinking fastball, slider and change-up. He'll top out at 96 mph, but usually pitches at 92 to 93.
Comment: Last year, Carmona walked more than he struck out (70 to 58) as he battled a left hip injury. He pitched well this spring training, easing off on the velocity to keep his sinker on the plate at the urging of pitching coach Carl Willis and catcher Victor Martinez. If Carmona wins 19 games as he did in 2007, fine. It's probably more realistic if he wins 14 to 16.
RHP Carl Pavano
Key 2008 stats: 4-2, 5.77 ERA, 34.1 innings, .306 BAA, RH .283, LH .324.
Skinny: Pavano spent spring training throwing between 89 mph and 91 mph. He throws a fastball, slider and change. He's 6-5 and uses his height well to throw his fastball to both sides of the plate at the bottom of the strike zone.
Comment: The Indians took a chance on Pavano, who has been basically out of commission for four years because of injuries. He made it through camp healthy and got better the longer camp went. The Indians believe he can give them a chance to win every fifth start.
LHP Scott Lewis
Key 2008 stats: 4-0, 2.63 ERA, 24 innings, .222 BAA, .254 RH, .130 LH.
Skinny: Lewis throws a fastball, curve, slider and change. He throws 88-89 mph and locates the ball well. He's effective with his change-up, which is about 12 mph slower than his fastball.
Comment: Lewis has to hit his spots and keep the ball down or he'll give up a lot of homers. He's calm and cool on the mound and that serves him well. Let's hope he's able to grip the ball better in the home opener on Friday at Progressive Field than he did in Arizona during spring training.
RHP Anthony Reyes
Key 2008 stats: 4-2, 2.76 ERA, 49 innings, .242 BAA, .267 RH, .240 LH.
Skinny: Reyes throws a fastball, curve and change. He throws between 87-91 mph. It's a heavy fastball that he locates well. The fastball is offset by a good change-up.
Comment: The Indians weren't sure if Reyes would make it through camp healthy after being shut down in September with a sore right elbow. Not only did he stay healthy, he pitched well. Now he has to keep doing it.
Safety net: The Indians have lefties Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and David Huff in the rotation at Class AAA Columbus if there's trouble with the rotation. Right-handers Kirk Saarloos and Jack Cassel are also in the pipeline. Right-hander Hector Rondon might get a call at Class AA Akron.
BULLPEN
RHP Kerry Wood
Key 2008 stats: 5-4, 3.26, 34 saves, 66.1 innings, .219 BAA, .227 RH, .209 LH
.
Skinny: Wood throws a fastball, cut fastball, slider and curve. He hit 97 mph in spring training, but usually throws between 91-95 mph.
Comment: Wood gives the Indians their first hard-throwing closer since Jose Mesa. He's in his second year as a stopper and last season converted 34 saves in 40 chances for the Cubs. If he stays healthy, the Indians should be one of the best pens in the American League.
LHP Rafael Perez
Key 2008 stats: 4-4, 3.54 ERA, 2 saves, 76.1 innings, .234 BAA, .243 RH, .222 LH.
Skinny: Perez is a fastball-slider pitcher. He throws a change, but sparingly. Perez throws between 90-92 mph. His pitches have late action in the strike zone, dropping out of reach before hitters can recognize the spin on the ball.
Comment: Perez jumped from 44 appearances in 2007 to 73 last year. He handled the extra workload well and gives manager Eric Wedge an effective reliever against left and right-handed hitters in the late innings.
RHP Rafael Betancourt
Key 2008 stats: 3-4, 5.07 ERA, 4 saves, 71 innings, .276 BAA, .295 RH, .252 LH.
Skinny: Betancourt, like Perez, is a set-up man. He throws a fastball, curve and change-up. He tops out around 94 mph, but usually throws between 91-92 mph.
Comment: Betancourt had a bad first half last season, but rebounded in the second half. His spring-training numbers weren't great, but he looked strong. He needs to keep rebounding to give Wedge the Raffie Left and Raffie Right option that worked so well in 2007.
RHP Jensen Lewis
Key 2008 stats: 0-4, 3.82, 13 saves, 66 innings, .266 BAA, .264 RH, .267 LH.
Skinny: Lewis throws a fastball, slider and change. His velocity reaches 90-91 mph, which is better than last year. Lewis concentrated on his slider in spring training.
Comment: Lewis proved last season that he can close, so that gives Wedge and alternative if Wood gets hurt or needs a day off. Lewis, like Betancourt, suffered last season because of a heavy workload in 2007, but pitched well in spring training.
RHP Joe Smith
Key 2008 stats: 6-3, 3.55 ERA, 63.1 innings, .220 BAA, .192 RH, .320 LH.
Skinny: Smith, a sidearmer, throws a fastball, slider and change. He's touched 92 mph this spring and usually sits at 90 mph, which is above average for a sidearmer. His slider works well against right-handers.
Comment: Smith impressed the Indians with his arm strength. Most sidearmers don't throw as hard as he does. It's one of the reasons the Indians think he will eventually be able to get lefties out. He didn't get a chance to work on that much in spring training because of a viral infection.
RHP Masa Kobayashi
Key 2008 stats: 4-5, 4.53 ERA, 6 saves, 55.2 innings, .286 BAA, .292 RH, .280 LH.
Skinny: Kobayashi consistently hit 92 mph in spring training, but got pounded because he couldn't get his pitches down. He throws a fastball, split and slider.
Comment: He'll open the season pitching in middle and long relief. He's in the last year of a $6 million contract.
LHP Zach Jackson
Key 2008 stats: 2-3, 5.55 ERA, 58.1 innings, .294 BAA, .271 RH, .348 LH.
Skinny: Jackson throws a fastball, cut fastball, slider and split change-up. He throws between 87-90 mph, but is vulnerable to left-handers.
Comment: Jackson made the club because he spent much of spring training competing for the last spot in the rotation. He was already stretched out, which meant if one of the starters got knocked out early, he could step in and control the damage.
Safety net: If the Indians need help in the bullpen, right-hander Vinnie Chulk and left-hander Tony Sipp will get the first call at Columbus.
by Paul Hoynes/Plain Dealer Reporter
Saturday April 04, 2009, 8:30 PM
HOUSTON -- Here's a breakdown of the Indians' 12-man pitching staff. Stats include batting average against (BAA) and what right-handed hitters (RH) and left-handed hitters (LH) hit against each pitcher last year.
STARTING ROTATION
LHP Cliff Lee
Key 2008 stats: 22-3, 2.54 ERA, 223.1 innings, .253 BAA, .245 RH, .272 LH.
Skinny: Lee, last year's AL Cy Young winner, throws a two- and four-seam fastball, cut fastball, slider, curve and change-up. He tops out at 93 mph, but usually throws between 89 and 91.
Comment: Lee had a tough spring, but came through it healthy. It will be interesting to see how responds to being a marked man because of the Cy Young Award. He doesn't have to win 20 again, 14 to 18 victories wouldn't be bad.
RHP Fausto Carmona
Key 2008 stats: 8-7, 5.44 ERA, 120.2 innings, .271 BAA, .230 RH, .303 LH.
Skinny: Carmona is a power pitcher with a sinking fastball, slider and change-up. He'll top out at 96 mph, but usually pitches at 92 to 93.
Comment: Last year, Carmona walked more than he struck out (70 to 58) as he battled a left hip injury. He pitched well this spring training, easing off on the velocity to keep his sinker on the plate at the urging of pitching coach Carl Willis and catcher Victor Martinez. If Carmona wins 19 games as he did in 2007, fine. It's probably more realistic if he wins 14 to 16.
RHP Carl Pavano
Key 2008 stats: 4-2, 5.77 ERA, 34.1 innings, .306 BAA, RH .283, LH .324.
Skinny: Pavano spent spring training throwing between 89 mph and 91 mph. He throws a fastball, slider and change. He's 6-5 and uses his height well to throw his fastball to both sides of the plate at the bottom of the strike zone.
Comment: The Indians took a chance on Pavano, who has been basically out of commission for four years because of injuries. He made it through camp healthy and got better the longer camp went. The Indians believe he can give them a chance to win every fifth start.
LHP Scott Lewis
Key 2008 stats: 4-0, 2.63 ERA, 24 innings, .222 BAA, .254 RH, .130 LH.
Skinny: Lewis throws a fastball, curve, slider and change. He throws 88-89 mph and locates the ball well. He's effective with his change-up, which is about 12 mph slower than his fastball.
Comment: Lewis has to hit his spots and keep the ball down or he'll give up a lot of homers. He's calm and cool on the mound and that serves him well. Let's hope he's able to grip the ball better in the home opener on Friday at Progressive Field than he did in Arizona during spring training.
RHP Anthony Reyes
Key 2008 stats: 4-2, 2.76 ERA, 49 innings, .242 BAA, .267 RH, .240 LH.
Skinny: Reyes throws a fastball, curve and change. He throws between 87-91 mph. It's a heavy fastball that he locates well. The fastball is offset by a good change-up.
Comment: The Indians weren't sure if Reyes would make it through camp healthy after being shut down in September with a sore right elbow. Not only did he stay healthy, he pitched well. Now he has to keep doing it.
Safety net: The Indians have lefties Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and David Huff in the rotation at Class AAA Columbus if there's trouble with the rotation. Right-handers Kirk Saarloos and Jack Cassel are also in the pipeline. Right-hander Hector Rondon might get a call at Class AA Akron.
BULLPEN
RHP Kerry Wood
Key 2008 stats: 5-4, 3.26, 34 saves, 66.1 innings, .219 BAA, .227 RH, .209 LH
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Skinny: Wood throws a fastball, cut fastball, slider and curve. He hit 97 mph in spring training, but usually throws between 91-95 mph.
Comment: Wood gives the Indians their first hard-throwing closer since Jose Mesa. He's in his second year as a stopper and last season converted 34 saves in 40 chances for the Cubs. If he stays healthy, the Indians should be one of the best pens in the American League.
LHP Rafael Perez
Key 2008 stats: 4-4, 3.54 ERA, 2 saves, 76.1 innings, .234 BAA, .243 RH, .222 LH.
Skinny: Perez is a fastball-slider pitcher. He throws a change, but sparingly. Perez throws between 90-92 mph. His pitches have late action in the strike zone, dropping out of reach before hitters can recognize the spin on the ball.
Comment: Perez jumped from 44 appearances in 2007 to 73 last year. He handled the extra workload well and gives manager Eric Wedge an effective reliever against left and right-handed hitters in the late innings.
RHP Rafael Betancourt
Key 2008 stats: 3-4, 5.07 ERA, 4 saves, 71 innings, .276 BAA, .295 RH, .252 LH.
Skinny: Betancourt, like Perez, is a set-up man. He throws a fastball, curve and change-up. He tops out around 94 mph, but usually throws between 91-92 mph.
Comment: Betancourt had a bad first half last season, but rebounded in the second half. His spring-training numbers weren't great, but he looked strong. He needs to keep rebounding to give Wedge the Raffie Left and Raffie Right option that worked so well in 2007.
RHP Jensen Lewis
Key 2008 stats: 0-4, 3.82, 13 saves, 66 innings, .266 BAA, .264 RH, .267 LH.
Skinny: Lewis throws a fastball, slider and change. His velocity reaches 90-91 mph, which is better than last year. Lewis concentrated on his slider in spring training.
Comment: Lewis proved last season that he can close, so that gives Wedge and alternative if Wood gets hurt or needs a day off. Lewis, like Betancourt, suffered last season because of a heavy workload in 2007, but pitched well in spring training.
RHP Joe Smith
Key 2008 stats: 6-3, 3.55 ERA, 63.1 innings, .220 BAA, .192 RH, .320 LH.
Skinny: Smith, a sidearmer, throws a fastball, slider and change. He's touched 92 mph this spring and usually sits at 90 mph, which is above average for a sidearmer. His slider works well against right-handers.
Comment: Smith impressed the Indians with his arm strength. Most sidearmers don't throw as hard as he does. It's one of the reasons the Indians think he will eventually be able to get lefties out. He didn't get a chance to work on that much in spring training because of a viral infection.
RHP Masa Kobayashi
Key 2008 stats: 4-5, 4.53 ERA, 6 saves, 55.2 innings, .286 BAA, .292 RH, .280 LH.
Skinny: Kobayashi consistently hit 92 mph in spring training, but got pounded because he couldn't get his pitches down. He throws a fastball, split and slider.
Comment: He'll open the season pitching in middle and long relief. He's in the last year of a $6 million contract.
LHP Zach Jackson
Key 2008 stats: 2-3, 5.55 ERA, 58.1 innings, .294 BAA, .271 RH, .348 LH.
Skinny: Jackson throws a fastball, cut fastball, slider and split change-up. He throws between 87-90 mph, but is vulnerable to left-handers.
Comment: Jackson made the club because he spent much of spring training competing for the last spot in the rotation. He was already stretched out, which meant if one of the starters got knocked out early, he could step in and control the damage.
Safety net: If the Indians need help in the bullpen, right-hander Vinnie Chulk and left-hander Tony Sipp will get the first call at Columbus.
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